Xu Lingjie, a scholar with the Civil Aviation Flight University of China, said that to many people's surprise the airline industry was actually all about capital and technology.

"It is an industry demanding high input but producing low output An airline will not only need a fleet but must also pay for expensive aviation equipment, fuel and airport services," she said. "If you are an investor only with money, you should not risk entering this market in haste. It is better you first evaluate your capabilities before stepping into this industry."

Li at the Civil Aviation University of China feels the global financial crisis will eventually lead to the restructuring of China's air transport industry, but dismissed claims only large State-owned companies would survive the slump.

"China's market will become more mature. There will be various carriers, not only State-owned but also private-owned, large international carriers and mini, low-fare ones," he said.

His comments will do little to quell the fear that China's private airlines, which have helped substantially cut the cost of tickets, will eventually be swallowed up by their State-owned counterparts, sending prices soaring again. However, Zou Jianjun, an associate professor at the Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, said the number of airlines had little impact on the costs for customers anyway.

"Long before the entrance of these private carriers there were four national airlines and four regional airlines competing in the market," he said. "The fall in prices in recent years is not because of private airlines, it is the result of the expansion of airlines and their capacities."

Despite an uncertain future, Wang Jinjun, chairman of Okay Airways, remained confident of his company's chances of survival.

"The market needs multiple products, and private carriers can be complementary to State-owned airlines," he added. "Private carriers will not account for a large market share but, as long as they are positioned right, they can still accomplish something big."

(China Daily April 10, 2009)