Yuan's Role Presents Dilemma for Chinese Policymakers
Adjust font size:
In many experts' view, the US dollar won't lose its global dominance overnight. So it's not entirely surprising nor disappointing that the G20 leaders did not reach a consensus on China's proposal.
The idea of proposing a super-reserve currency itself showed the weakening status of the US dollar. However, since the United States was still the world's most developed country and the biggest beneficiary of the current global monetary system, it would not cede its currency power lightly, said Hua Sheng, a former policy advisor who was involved in many important economic policies in China such as shareholding reform.
Guo Tianyong, a professor at the China Central Finance University, said China fleshed out the idea just days before the G20 meeting, and the proposal was meant more to send a message than to translate into something real.
"It sends a clear message to the United States that countries like China have complaints about US monetary policy. The US government should be very cautious next time when dealing with money printing plans," he said.
Zhou's remarks were not intended to achieve a concrete result at the London summit but to shape future discussions, said Xu Bin, a professor with the Shanghai-based China Europe International Business School.
"It is a strategic move with a lot of vision," he said.
Although the US dollar's pre-eminence would not be hurt in the short run, it was inevitable that the world reserve currency system would expand to a mix of currencies instead of one, said Hua.
The world reserve currency system should not be tied to one country but should develop into a multipolar system based on a group of currencies, said Yin Jianfeng, researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.
He said with such a trade-off, the international monetary system could be sustainable in the long term.
"The Renminbi should take a key part in the international reserve currency basket, although that will take time," he said.
"I think China should play a cooperative role with Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries to introduce a regional currency, while the world is trying to replace the old reserve currency system," Jeffrey Sachs, special adviser to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, told the China Daily newspaper on April 3.
He said the US dollar, British pound, euro and a regional currency in Asia could form a basket of global reserve currencies.
Market forecast decide
Although China is moving forward on the road to having an international currency, it will take its time and achieve its goals in a balanced way, analysts said.
"It is possible that the global financial crisis will facilitate the process of making the yuan internationally accepted, but there is no need to push for that," PBOC vice governor Yi Gang told Xinhua in early March.
A currency's international acceptance would be ultimately decided by market forces, not government fiat, said Jiao Jinpu, a PBOC economist.
He said China should continue to increase the yuan's use in regional trade settlement and pricing as a foundation for expansion of its role.