Uneven Global Recovery and China's Contribution
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Against the backdrop of uneven recovery of the world's economies, it is necessary to show coordinated policies among developed and emerging countries, and China's influence on world economy is increasingly important, economists said ahead of the G20 Seoul Summit, to he held on Nov. 11-12.
Uneven recovery
Global economic recovery has slowed since the G20 Toronto Summit back in June this year. Wang Qing, chief economist for Greater China at Morgan Stanley, has told Xinhua that American and European's economies are losing momentum. With developed countries facing difficulty in the near term, emerging market economies, such as China, India, and Brazil, are showing resilience in their growth.
"Uneven recovery is the primary problem we face," Wang Qing said. "In the period after 2008 financial crisis, lack of balanced growth is likely the theme."
For October, the consensus forecast of economic growth for Euro zone, the United States and Japan is worse than that in May. Market is predicting that growth rates for Europe, the United States and Japan would be slower in 2011 than this year.
With weak economic statistics published in the United States, market is growing more pessimistic on forecast for 2010. Wang Qing explained that market is more guarded on the forecast.
"We believe the US economic recovery is sustainable, so double dip is unlikely to happen. However, recovery process would take longer. We anticipate the US GDP will exceed 2 percent in 2011," he said.
To stimulate economic recovery, the US Federal Reserve has announced the second round of quantitative easing.
In Euro zone, as a result of improving sovereign debt situation, market is predicting that this year's economy grows faster than what has been expected. But the forecast for growth in the Euro zone is still the worst among Europe, the United States and Japan.
Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for Greater China, told Xinhua that the global economic growth is predicted to slow next year, but there is no risk for double dip. The global economic growth is forecast at 4.5 percent for this year and 3.8 percent for next year.