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Despite Uncertainties, Asian Economies Heading Towards Full Recovery in 2010

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The global recession, which started late 2008, hit Asia hard as its economies were mainly powered by manufacturing sector that exports most of the products to industrialized economies.

Thanks to swift government response -- including reduction of interest rates, decreasing bank reserve requirements and stimulus spending -- Asian economies led the global recovery from the worst recession in decades. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said the region's GDP would grow by 4.5 percent last year, a rate higher than many other parts of the world.

Experts, however, also warned that early signs of growth will not necessarily translate to a long term recovery, especially as export-reliant Asian economies were still hinged on the performance of developed countries in 2010. And there are no indications yet that the crisis that crippled the US and Europe is finally over.

A question is thus raised for Asian governments in 2010 on how and when to implement their exit strategies. It would be one of the key issues affecting Asia's sustained recovery.

Rosy picture for 2010

Since the beginning of 2010, economists and analysts seem to have painted a rosy picture for the Asian economy. In January, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, chief of International Monetary Fund (IMF)said in Hong Kong that excluding Japan, Asia may expand by more than 7 percent.

While dismissing fears of a "double-dip" recession for the world economy, he said the pace of recovery had been uneven -- with Asia bouncing back faster than the rest of the world.

The ADB also said Asian economies were expected to lead the recovery from the global financial crisis with growth anticipated to quicken this year to 6.6 percent.

"The region is already well into the recovery phase, leading the global economy out of recession...2010 looks as though it will resemble something closer to normal for the Asia-Pacific region," Moody's said in a report forecasting the Asian economy.

Moody's said China and India will continue to drive the regional economy. With some of the Chinese government's 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus still to be spent -- and suggestions that further stimulus spending will be required – GDP growth in China will accelerate towards 9 percent in 2010. Boosted by the Commonwealth Games, India will expand by more than 8 percent in 2010 after 2009's relatively modest 6.1 percent growth rate.

According to a forecast by the Bank of Korea (BOK), South Korea's GDP will expand 4.6 percent in 2010. Experts say the country's year-on-year growth rates, buoyed by a strong inventory rebound, will exceed this threshold in the first half of 2010.

Fiscal stimulus, exports, as well as inventory adjustments will drive a recovery in the nations of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), with conditions varying markedly across economies.

Indonesia is expected to lead the recovery for ASEAN countries. The IMF has raised its estimation for Indonesia's GDP growth rate to 5.5 percent this year, from 4.8 percent, equal to the government's 2010 target.

"Bank loans started to grow in November and December last year. Increasing export and investment recovery may spur the economic growth this year. The increased debt rating awarded by Fitch also reflects such a situation. We are very sure that growth momentum can be preserved," said IMF Asia-Pacific Division Chief Thomas R Rumbaugh.

The recovery is likely to be more gradual elsewhere in Southeast Asia, according to Moody's, with a return to trend growth not expected until 2011 for most other ASEAN members. Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand will record GDP growth around 3 percent in 2010 and Singapore around 4 percent.

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