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US Economy on Long Transition to Recovery

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While some are sighing year-end relief of having already spotted signs of recovery in the United States, others are still as worried as in the midst of the recession.

One could indeed argue that their concerns are well-founded, as the global financial crisis has also triggered a social crisis.

"Until we start to create jobs, we are not going to get out of the crisis. So this could drag on for a long time," said Arthur Segal, a Harvard Business School professor but also a co-founder and former co-owner of TA Associates Realty.

TA Associates Realty, which has over 30 markets in the United States and Canada, was listed as one of "The 30 Most Influential Players in Real Estate in the World."

The professor's concern was supported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which estimated the October unemployment rate at 10.2 percent -- the highest since April 1983. According to the report, the real under-employment rate was 17.5 percent, taking into consideration all those who have given up looking for jobs and who went from higher paying jobs to part-time jobs with a fraction of the salary they used to earn.

Manufacturing strongholds such as Michigan, California, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois and Georgia reported higher jobless rates, with the highest at 15.3 percent as posted in October.

"There has been way too much attention on pumping up the economy in other ways, like a modest tax cut that does not affect anything, instead of focusing on jobs," said William George, former chairman and CEO of Medtronic.

"I don't see the stimulus package necessarily has created jobs, but at best preserved some jobs," Segal agreed, who then pointed to the nexus between unemployment and collapse of the real estate market.

"We now have a trillion and a half of loans that are due on a portfolio of debt of US$3.6 trillion that the Federal Reserve reports over the next three years. So we have roughly US$500 billion of debt that has to be refinanced but not getting refinanced.

"And the securitization side, which is about 25 percent of the commercial mortgage backed security business, just does not exit any more. So the question is where the debt is going to come from," Segal said. For real estate to turn the corner, jobs had to be created, which in turn created capital to pay down debt.

The collapse of the residential market is causing the commercial real estate bubble to burst. The commercial market on average has fallen by at least 40 to 50 percent throughout the country.

"So the government's focus has got to shift to the new company formation to support small businesses in creating jobs, not simply saving them," said George.

Like Segal, George is a Harvard Business School professor, and was selected one of "The 25 Most Influential Business People of the Last 25 Years" by PBS Nightly News.

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