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Glimmer of Hope on Horizon for Japan's Fastest-contracting Economy?

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Following the fastest decline of 12.7 percent in about 35 years for the previous quarter, the cabinet office on Wednesday reported the steepest-ever fall of 15.2 percent for Japan's economy in the first three months of 2009.

In the January-March period, Japan's GDP declined for four quarters in a row for the first time in history. Domestic demand sent GDP down 2.6 percentage points from the previous three months, while demand from overseas dragged it down 1.4 points, the office said.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 55 percent of Japan's GDP, shrank a real 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter as an increasing number of consumers hesitated to dine out, travel and buy luxuries while corporate capital spending, a main driver of Japan's six-year economic recovery since 2002, fell at a record pace of 10.4 percent in real terms as many Japanese companies attempted to minimize their losses rather than seize future business opportunities.

Meanwhile, exports and imports also witnessed record declines, down by 26.0 percent and 15.0 percent respectively.

In fiscal 2008 ending March 31, GDP saw the first yearly decline in seven years, down by a record 3.5 percent in real terms or by 3.7 percent in nominal terms.

The figures gloomily indicated the world's second largest economy has been dragged at a faster pace into the dire economic straits under the pressure of sluggish external and domestic demand against the backdrop of the global recession.

Glimmer of hope on the horizon?

In light of the aggressive measures, including massive cuts in inventories in particular, taken by Japanese firms to tide over the difficult period, economists said they are anticipating the worst may be over for the largest economy in Asia as the companies are now better prepared to rapidly boost production once demand turns up.

And a huge package of stimulus measures adopted by the government will likely, to some extent, help the economy recover in the coming months, observers said.

However, the harsh employment as well as the sluggish consumer spending in its consequence, is sure to stand in the way to Japan's economic recovery, they argued.

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