China's Ministry of Commerce has predicted that the monthly trade surplus could top US$20 billion some time this year despite efforts to curb exports.

The forecast comes after China reported a surplus of US$18.8 billion in August, the third monthly high in succession.

Spokesman Chong Quan said that the surplus was "a major problem" for China's economy and recognized that it had intensified trade frictions with other countries.

The appreciation of the yuan, the increase in interest rates and stricter bank reserve ratio requirements have all failed to reduce the growth of the trade imbalance. A new approach is needed.

"China is seeking to expand its imports and hopes countries concerned will eliminate their unreasonable controls on the export of high-tech products," he said.

Vice-president Li Lingmin of the China National Textiles Imports and Exports Corporation agreed with the prediction. "The global market's huge demand for China-made products has led to the export boom. There is no better way to curb the rocketing surplus than by expanding imports," he said.

An official in charge of the Foreign Investment Department of the MOC told Xinhua on Tuesday that the strong export momentum would last and bring the year's total trade surplus to a record high.

From January to August, the accumulated surplus hit US$94.65 billion. It is inevitable China will surpass its record trade surplus of more than US$100 billion in 2005.

A study report released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday pointed out a few "abnormalities" in the year's export growth.

The steel trade, which posted a deficit of US$7.7 billion in the first eight months of last year, registered a surplus of US$1.8 billion this year. There has also been a marked decrease in copper imports due to overcapacity in the domestic market.

The report also emphasized an "abnormality" relating to textile products. In the first eight months of this year, the aggregated exports of clothing surged to US$59.77 billion, up 28.1 percent on last year. Experts believe the export rush was triggered by concerns that the government will soon slash tax rebates for textile exports.

But abnormalities aside, the prediction of a continued growth in exports is clear and the State Council, China's Cabinet, is now deliberating a package of policies aimed at facilitating imports. Details have yet to be released.

(Xinhua News Agency September 13, 2006)