China will annually have 1.2 million surplus young men with no marriage prospects starting in 2013, when there will be 10 percent more males than females in the population, demographers have said.

The forecast was contained in a report recently released by the Population and Development Research Institute, one of China's most recognized demographic research organizations, which operates under the Public Policy and Administration School of Xi'an Jiaotong University.

The report was based on a survey conducted last summer in 369 administrative villages across 28 provinces in China, in which a total of 3,362 men over the age of 28 were registered as never having had an opportunity to marry.

This translates into nine bachelors with an average age of 41.4 for every village in the survey, said Jin Xiaoyi, a professor at the institute, who was in charge of the project.

The survey also found that villages in western provinces, such as Shaanxi, Guizhou, Gansu and Sichuan, had an average of 10.3 single men, compared to the 7.35 single men in villages of eastern China.

The difference is believed to be the result of the economic imbalance between the eastern and western parts of the country.

Demographers warned that the lack of marriage prospects could lead to a rise in crime, because single adult men are more inclined to gamble, create disturbances and start fights.

A fading dream

Wang Shuanglao (an alias), 64, a farmer in Ledu county, Qinghai province, lost his father when he was 14 and struggled to make ends meet with his mother and three younger siblings.

At the age of 15 he went to work as a migrant worker to support his family.

"As a poor farmer, no woman wanted to tie the knot with me and my dream of getting married fades as I get older," he said.

He now lives on a 2,000 yuan (US$301) old age pension provided by the local government every year.

Li Yun (another alias), 54, a farmer in Jiaohe city, in Northeast China's Jilin province, is worried about the marriage prospects of her two sons, aged 29 and 33.

"My sons are not smart and failed to finish their primary school education. They now toil as migrant workers and, with no special skills, they earn less than their peers," she said.

Although she admits that her sons do not have much hope of getting married, she said a male child is still viewed favorably and that she knew of some villagers who had undergone abortions when they discovered they were carrying a female child.

Demographers said the prejudice in favor of sons is deep rooted in Chinese culture, where a male heir is expected to support his parents, while a daughter becomes part of her husband's family.

The alarming surplus of males is caused by backward economic conditions and a sex ratio imbalance, they said.

Compared to the central and eastern regions, the western part of China is disadvantaged in terms of its geographical location and economic development, which has resulted in a larger concentration of single men, professor Jin said.

The survey also found that the surplus of unmarried men not only increased pressures on their families, but also hindered the development of their communities and posed threats to social security.

With no hope of resolving the problem in the near future, experts said the social security network needs to be reformed to enable it to provide for the unmarried men, who will not have children to support them in their old age.

(China Daily December 11, 2010)