Expert: China's New Environment Plan Sustainable

As climate change becomes ever more important, China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is emerging at the center of scrutiny and needs to build a low carbon industrial system and pattern of consumption, a Tsinghua University environmental expert said Sunday at the 2011 China International Forum on Climate Change in Beijing.

Tsinghua professor He Jiankun is the vice director of China National Climate Change Experts Committee, director of Low Carbon Economy Institute and director of Tsinghua University's school council. He joined over 200 government officials, scholars and entrepreneurs at the forum to discuss ways to balance economic and environmental priorities and build low-carbon cities.

He said China's resources and policies at its current stage of development bring it harsher challenges than developed countries to address the climate change issue. "But the country has integrated a sustainable development plan that is addressing the problem."

Energy consumption and CO2 emission in China is large and fast-growing. "The reason is because of China's large population and economy, and it is right in the middle of rapid industrialization and urbanization," he said.

Adhering to the Copenhagen Accord of keeping the global temperature rise under 2 degrees Celsius, China has formulated the National Action Plan on Climate Change that focuses on green and low carbon development and mitigating carbon emission.

In the country's 12th Five-year Plan, China targets decreases of 15 percent in energy intensity decrease and 17 percent in CO2 intensity. The new and renewable energy share in primary energy consumption will be 15 percent by 2020, about 0.7Gtce, four times as in 2005.

"In long run, these targets are well in line with the objectives of pursuing new industrialization and building a resource conserving and environmental-friendly society," He said.

China's energy intensity declined by 19.1 percent from 2005 to 2010, while its energy consumption increased by 38 percent. He said controlling the uptrend of energy demand and CO2 emission is "still arduous."

China's economy may grow faster by 2020 and the volume of renewable energy development still could not meet the new incremental demand, accordingly coal and other fossil fuels consumption and CO2 emission will continue to rise.

"But I have to say that the resource-dependent and extensive development mode can hardly carry on," He said.

The Tsinghua professor said the environmental investment will be greater during 12th Five-year Plan than the previous one. According to McKinsey, the additional input for energy saving and emission reduction is about 1.5 trillion yuan during 11th Five-year Plan, and the number will rise to between 1.9 and 3.4 trillion yuan during 12th Five-year Plan, of which the rate without return will grow from 20 to 40 percent.

He said building a low carbon industrial system and pattern of consumption should be the core of the plan to achieve low carbon development. He suggested that adjusting industrial structure, improving energy efficiency and developing low carbon energy technologies are three major measures of CO2 emission mitigation.

China will reduce the carbon emission per GDP by 45 percent from 2005 to 2020. He said among these figures, energy construction optimization will contribute 20 percent, with the rest by energy saving.

"The energy saved from the adjustment of industrial structure will play a more and more important role," he said.

He said another way to support low carbon development is to strengthen the technological innovation and develop new emerging low carbon industries.

According to estimations by United Nations Environment Programme, China's low carbon technology investment will jump 10 folds from 2005 to 2050, averaging 1.2 trillion yuan annually.