Emerging Markets' Growth Prospects Remain Strong Despite Challenges

Rising economic demand amid high population growth, fiscal discipline and diversified trade ties keep emerging markets on a growth track, said investment guru Mark Mobius Wednesday at the Middle East Investment Summit.

In his key note speech at the Middle East Investment Summit held in Dubai, Mobius, Executive Chairman of Templeton Asset Management, said that population growth in the emerging market is much higher than in the developed world, which translates into growing demand for resources, goods and services.

Mobius said that growth in the emerging markets reached six percent in 2011, while the developed countries' GDP only added 1.4 percent.

Mobius, 75, regarded as the "dean of emerging markets" in the finance industry, also said that emerging markets, like the BRIC ( Brazil, Russia, India, China) and a number of south-east Asian, eastern European states and African nations, benefit from fiscal discipline.

Emerging markets' debt to GDP ratio stood at 30 percent in 2011, while the developed market in Western Europe, the U.S. and Japan had a debt to GDP ratio of 100 percent, he said. "China, India, and the 'Tiger states' in particular have learned their lessons from the Asian crisis in 1998. Their fiscal discipline keeps inflation and interest rates in their countries low."

In addition to that, "China has amassed US$3 trillion foreign reserves, three times more than Japan. Even the oil and gas-rich nation of Algeria, has with US$163 billion higher foreign reserve than the United Kingdom with US$68 billion."

While there was the danger of lesser demand from Western states for products from the developing world, "the emerging markets have diversified these risks by increasingly trading between themselves. "

Regarding China's domestic economy Mobius said he favors the scenario of a soft landing of the China's economy. "China plays a key role in the development of the emerging markets," he said.

"We expect China's economy to grow by 8.2 percent in 2012, slightly down from 9.2 percent in 2011," he said.

Mobius, a German national born in the United States, added that the Chinese real estate market was not in danger of collapsing, " as the demand for developments is still high, as I could see with my own eyes in Beijing and Shanghai. Personally, I wanted to buy property in the China's capital, but the government has restricted purchases for foreigners to give nationals a chance to get their home of their own."

Mobius denied comparisons between China's real estate market and the housing collapse in the United States in 2008, when the sub-prime crisis dragged the world economy down.

"Chinese banks simply don't do sub-prime business, and the government keeps a close eye on developers," he said.

Because of the emerging markets' solid growth prospects, Mobius concluded that commodities will remain an attractive asset. "I am bullish for palladium in particular, because this precious metal is needed for the car production and the demand for vehicles is strong in the BRIC."