Japan's Quake Impact to Buoy up Ford, GM's North American Market Share

The Deutsche Bank has forecast that the impact of Japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami may lead to a reduction in auto production this year in North America, but GM and Ford will gain market share, according to a Wednesday report of Detnews.

Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache increased his 2011 and 2012 earnings forecast for Ford, and raised his 2012 earnings estimate for GM.

Lache pointed out that the disruption caused by the Japan crisis may cut overall auto sales this year by half a million units, to 12.5 million. But he also estimated that production in North America will recover in the year of 2012. He raised his estimates for 2012 sales by half a million vehicles to 14.5 million.

Lache believed that the supply of vehicles from Japanese automakers will suffer a major loss over the next few months, which will lead to the reduction in dealer inventory level that no longer supports the current sales level.

"However, we believe that pent-up demand and increased inventories will lead to higher sales in 2012," Lache wrote in a research note.

Lache mentioned that the supply shortage will only have a moderate impact on US automakers, and he predicted GM and Ford would gain market shares "in the 2-3 point range," adding that both companies will make profit from higher price.