China's incremental policies boost foreign investor confidence

Foreign investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Chinese market, bolstered by the country's recent incremental policies aimed at vitalizing growth momentum.

UBS Investment Bank has raised its China 2024 growth forecast to 4.8 percent from 4.6 percent, while Goldman Sachs has lifted China's GDP prediction this year from 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent.

The uplift is mostly due to China's third-quarter year-on-year GDP growth of 4.6 percent, slightly above market expectation of 4.4 percent, and the series of support policies the government recently launched, said UBS economist Wang Tao.

Economists with Goldman Sachs noted that the latest round of China's incremental policies clearly indicates that policymakers have made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy.

So far this year, multiple international institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have raised their forecast for China's economic growth for 2024.

In the face of mounting challenges at home and abroad, China's GDP grew 4.8 percent year on year in the first three quarters of this year. The country set a target of economic growth at around 5 percent for this year.

To beef up the economy in response to looming challenges, Chinese authorities have unveiled a broader-than-expected policy package since late September, which focused on enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding effective domestic demand, supporting business operation, promoting the recovery of the property market, and invigorating capital markets.

Aside from these pro-growth policies, Chinese policymakers continued to improve investment facilitation, create a favorable investment environment, promote high-level financial opening up to the outside world, and actively support foreign investors in participating in the Chinese capital market.

Alan Ho, co-senior country officer for China at J.P. Morgan, said that the pace of China's financial market opening up had accelerated in recent years.

For example, foreign ownership restrictions in local securities, funds and futures companies have been lifted and financial markets' connectivity mechanisms have been maturing more quickly than expected, which has brought broader development opportunities to foreign financial institutions, Ho said.

Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that foreign holdings of domestic renminbi bonds have so far exceeded 640 billion U.S. dollars, reaching a historic high.

Net foreign investment in domestic bonds surpassed 80 billion U.S. dollars in the first three quarters of this year, while foreign investment in Chinese equities saw notable improvement.

Foreign central banks and commercial banks are the biggest investors in domestic renminbi bonds, as they allocate a higher proportion of investment in medium and long-term bonds such as treasury bonds and policy bank bonds, according to the foreign exchange regulator.

The growing foreign holdings have reflected the global investors' confidence in the Chinese market. Currently, 24 global systemically important banks have a presence in China.

Industry insiders believed that foreign investors' active buy-in of Chinese assets has shown their optimism in China's continuous opening-up measures and policy support in the capital market.

During the World Bank's 110th meeting of the Development Committee last week in Washington DC, Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min pledged that China will intensify countercyclical adjustments of fiscal policy.

A series of strong measures will be implemented to resolve local government debt risks, stabilize the real estate market, increase the income of key groups, enhance people's livelihoods, and drive equipment upgrades and trade-in deals for consumer goods, Liao said.

By leveraging government spending to stimulate social investment and consumption, effective demand will be increased, he said, noting that China is confident in achieving the annual economic growth target, and will continue to inject impetus to world economic growth.