National Activity Index points to moderate economic growth in March
Xinhua,April 24, 2018 Adjust font size:
CHICAGO, April 23 (Xinhua) -- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.10 in March from +0.98 in February, due to slower growth in production and employment related indicators, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported on Monday.
Of the 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI, 44 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 41 made negative contributions.
To be specific, 25 indicators improved from February to March, while 59 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago attributes the decline of CFNAI to slower growth in production and employment related indicators. Production-related indicators contributed +0.14 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.54 in February. Total industrial production increased 0.5 percent in March after increasing 1.1 percent in February.
The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.04 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.14 in February.
The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 61.9 in March from 64.2 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.35 in February. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 103,000 in March after increasing by 326,000 in February.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to -0.01 in March from -0.06 in February. Housing starts increased to 1,319,000 annualized units in March from 1,295,000 in February, and housing permits increased to 1,354,000 annualized units in March from 1,321,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI in March was constructed using data available as of April 19, 2018.
CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. As economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. Enditem