U.S. experts say future of U.S.-Iranian relations looks bleak

HOUSTON, March 28 (Xinhua) -- Mistrust between Washington and Tehran tends to reach a higher level under the current U.S. administration, which will further raise the risk of miscalculation and the chances of escalation when an incident occurs, said U.S. experts.

According to a recent study titled "Trump Policy in the Middle East: Iran," foreign policy experts Joe Barnes and Robert Barron from Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy explored the policy of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration toward Iran and analyzed the ways in which it differs from that of the Barack Obama administration.

The research fellows said that constructive relationship between the United States and Iran had "a faint prospect under the Obama administration," and the prospect is "even unlikelier under Trump."

"The Trump administration will find rolling back Iranian influence a heavy lift and, at times, a dangerous one," said the authors, adding: "The EU (European Union) and others in the international community will be wary of efforts to further isolate Iran."

Israel and Saudi Arabia welcome the Trump administration's stance, "but a perceived carte blanche from Washington might prompt leaders in Saudi Arabia and Israel to act in ways that do not conform to U.S. interests," they said.

Expanding Iranian influence in the Middle East has worried policymakers in the region and in Washington, said the experts.

The experts noted that since 2011, revolutions across the region have created strategic challenges and opportunities for Iran.

They said a unilateral U.S. decision to reimpose sanctions against Iran could create a rift with U.S. allies in Europe. The nomination of Mike Pompeo to replace Rex Tillerson as secretary of state "further clouds" the future, as "Pompeo is widely considered to be a hawk when it comes to Iran and has been a harsh critic of the nuclear deal."

Looking forward, the authors said "goodwill and deft diplomacy" are required to avoid rocky times ahead for U.S.-Iranian relations, even though both are "in notoriously short supply in the Middle East." Enditem