Interview: Italy's campaign fails to address key issues: analyst

by Alessandra Cardone

ROME, Feb. 27 (Xinhua) -- With less than one week left before general elections, Italy's campaign was being dominated by "hardly sustainable" promises, failing to address many issues crucial for the country's future, an Italian analyst warned.

Three major contenders were competing in the national ballot scheduled on March 4: a three-party center-right coalition, a center-left front led by Democratic Party (PD) -- which has ruled the cabinets in the last 5-year legislature, and the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) running alone.

None of them would have really engaged in debating extensively the topics most crucial for the country's development, according to president of Rome-based Institute of International Affairs (IAI) Ferdinando Nelli Feroci.

"All political forces have mainly focused their campaign on making promises to the electorate that would hardly be (financially) sustainable after the vote, and they all know it very well," Nelli Feroci, also a former diplomat, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

THREE KEY TOPICS

Depending on the side of the political spectrum, such promises may concern tax cuts, fiscal bonuses, or new reforms that would actually not be possible to implement considering Italy's current budget situation, according to the expert.

The public debate was especially missing three key topics. "A first issue is the need for the country to carry on with structural reforms enacted by the (center-left) cabinets in this legislation... It is something that should be continued," he explained.

A second key matter was Italy's public debt, which was equal to some 132.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and the second highest in the euro-zone after Greece. This was perhaps the most crucial issue for the country's financial sustainability -- especially in the eye of foreign investors -- and its future development, according to the analyst.

The current government has planned a reduction path starting from 2017 but, apart from that, none of the political forces -- with the exception of small, center-left Lista Bonino -- have clearly said how they would move to cut the debt.

Last but not least, the analyst noted the lack of debate around the "productivity of the country's economic system", which was indeed a long-lasting problem.

Italy's labor productivity per person was at 97.9 index points in 2016, the second lowest in Europe after Greece, and far from the 103.7 averagely registered in the Eurozone, data from EU statistical office Eurostat showed.

The Italian index had been at 99.9 in 1996, and showed more or less an upward trend until 2008, when the global financial crisis severely hit the country.

FLAT-TAX PROPOSAL

Despite all that, other issues have prevailed since the electoral race kicked off, and especially immigration, security, fiscal and pension reforms, and morality in politics.

In the center-right coalition, for example, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) party was pushing hard on a proposal to introduce a "flat tax" threshold at 23 percent.

Rightwing, anti-immigrant League led by Matteo Salvini supported the flat-tax idea (with an even lower threshold), promised to expel some 500,000 migrants and to put "Italians first". The League also pledged to cancel a pension reform implemented by the Italian government in 2011, which has progressively increased the retirement age.

On its part, the M5S expressed a less clear position on the flat-tax proposal, pledging more generically to reduce taxes on low and medium-income households and individual businesses. A strong point in the M5S' electoral agenda was instead the proposal of a basic income system to grant low-income individuals and families a regular payment from the government.

Consistent with the work done in the cabinets in the last 5 years, the PD defended the progressive nature of Italy's fiscal system -- those who earn more, pay more -- and yet pledged further gradual tax cuts.

There were also other promises from all around the spectrum, including increasing the minimum pension payment, or the public spending, or the number of police officers.

None of the major candidates explained thoroughly how their proposals would be covered financially, and how they could reconcile them with the need to reduce the huge debt.

Considering all that, the analyst expected the political leadership to "get rid of all of the non-sustainable promises after the vote."

"I hope the political forces in charge of the next government will be finally able to address the crucial topics just mentioned," Nelli Feroci stressed.

EUROPE & VOTE OUTCOME

Finally, the analyst acknowledged that Europe was another issue major candidates were addressing only vaguely. "European topics have been mainly discussed in the form of tough criticism, and particularly towards the so-called austerity policies of the EU," Nelli Feroci noted.

Yet, the analyst remained quite optimistic, whatever the outcome of the vote would be. "I have seen the toughest anti-European stands -- used in recent months by the League and the M5S for example -- disappearing from the political propaganda in the last weeks of campaign," he said.

For example, the most sensitive idea of holding a referendum on Italy's eurozone membership -- mentioned by both those parties -- has disappeared.

The analyst said something might indeed change in Italy's stand within the EU with respect to some issues, but ruled out "the risk of a clash with the EU after the vote."

As for the outcome of the vote, he agreed with most forecasts, according to which "the center-right should emerge as the largest coalition, and the Five Star Movement as the most popular single party".

"Yet, the M5S alone would not be able to get enough seats to form a majority and govern by itself; therefore, the most likely scenario will be a victory of the center-right," the analyst explained.

As for center-left PD, Nelli Feroci said it was quite normal for leading political forces in Western countries to lose ground after some years in the government.

Nonetheless, he suggested caution against taking forecasts for granted, because a new electoral law would apply to the next vote, and its effects on the distribution of seats were yet to understand fully. Furthermore, at least one-third of Italians were yet unsure whether to vote, and, in case, for whom. Enditem