News Analysis: Could New York bombing be start of more terror attacks?

By Matthew Rusling

WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 (Xinhua) -- Monday's terror bombing could foreshadow a more dangerous future for the United States, experts said.

Monday morning saw a man attempt a suicide bombing by strapping a pipe bomb to his body during rush hour in a subway tunnel near Times Square in New York, one of the busiest and most densely packed areas in the United States. The suspect was identified as 27-year-old Akayed Ullah, an immigrant from Bangladesh, according to U.S. media reports.

Experts said that a number of coalescing factors are contributing to the threat towards the United States by radical Islamist extremists.

TRUMP'S JERUSALEM MOVE COULD BOOST TERROR RECRUITMENT

U.S. President Donald Trump has recently announced that he recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and that he would move the U.S. embassy in Israel to that city, which is claimed by both Jews and Muslims. Trump's move has sparked Muslim protests and prompted violent clashes in the Middle East in recent days, as Jerusalem's ownership is an issue of much contention between religions.

Experts said that if protests continue, terror groups could weave the issue into their overall narrative that the West, under the United States, is waging war against Islam -- a narrative that groups like Islamic State (IS) group have successfully used to recruit fighters in recent years.

"Jerusalem is an issue that still resonates strongly across the Arab and Islamic world..." and Trump's decision "risks inflaming regional tension and increasing anti-American sentiment. The result is a boon for extremist forces," Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Rand Corp's Center for Middle East Public Policy, told Xinhua.

With an increase in anti-American sentiment and more recruits, the chance of further attacks could increase, experts said.

Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua that Trump's decision does not help in the fight against terrorists, and that radicals will take advantage of the situation.

Already, there has been considerable violence in the Mideast following Trump's decision, and this is likely to continue. Arabs feel that Trump is completely one-sided in favor of Israel and will use this decision to encourage others to fight American interests, West said.

Writing in Newsweek last year, Kaye contended that moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem would be a boon for the multiple jihadi groups across the Middle East.

Despite the Palestinian issue nearly dropping off the map in the Arab world, the emotional draw of Jerusalem continues to resonate across the Muslim world, Kaye argued.

"Extremists in the region capitalize on this," she argued.

ISLAMIC STATE GOING GLOBAL

Another factor that could heighten the risk of future attacks is a possible IS shift in its focus from the Middle East to become a truly global terror force.

The Nov. 2015 Paris attacks, in which over 100 people were killed and hundreds more wounded, as well as many other instances worldwide, have underscored the IS ability to use social media to inspire individuals to carry out violent attacks against civilians. The group has also inspired or had a hand in several other attacks in recent years, from Belgium to Turkey to Orlando, in the U.S. state of Florida.

With the terror group virtually defeated in what used to be its Middle East stronghold, some experts argue that if the terror organization seeks to keep its mission alive, it will have to ramp up attacks outside of Europe.

While the IS wreaked havoc in the Middle East for several years and overtook vast swaths of territory, it is now on the run, after years of an anti-IS bombing campaign.

With IS so-called Mideast kingdom, or "caliphate" all but destroyed, the group's terrorist capabilities could increase in other parts of the world, Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua.

Police cannot be all places at all times, and White noted that there remain millions of soft targets nationwide, such as shopping malls, churches, mosques, downtown areas or highway rest stops where bombers or shooters could carry out attacks, and where they could inflict severe damage in just minutes, before any police arrive.

In cities nationwide, there are sidewalks filled with people, and terrorists could mow them down with cars or trucks, copying terror tactics used to attack cities such as London in recent months, he said. Enditem