Report: Optimizing energy structure is the key to reaching air-quality standard

A report finished by Tsinghua University implies that nearly thirty percent of the 74 major cities in China would exceed the air quality standard for PM2.5 (annual mean PM2.5 concentration of 35μg/m³) with strengthened end-of-pipe control strategies only. Further optimization of energy structure is essential to ensure that all 74 major cities in China reach the air quality standard in 2030, while over half of the cities could reach the WHO interim II standard (annual mean PM2.5 concentration of 25μg/m³).

This report entitled "How to Reach Air Quality Standard of PM2.5 in China by 2030? - a numerical simulation discussion based on energy and end-of-pipe control scenarios" was finished by Tsinghua University and financially supported by Energy Foundation China. This report applies several quantitative numerical simulation models, including energy forecast model, emission inventory model, and air quality model, to investigate the national air quality in future decades. This report also manages to provide a feasible way for the major cities of China to reach Air Quality Standard of PM2.5 in near future.

First of all, cleaner energy structure is of great importance for reaching the air quality standard in the future. China will gradually change the current coal-dominant energy structure and percentage of natural gas will be increased significantly. In 2030, coal in China will be reduce to the level lower than 35% in primary energy consumption via promoting policies of "coal to electrics" and "coal to natural gas" so as to replace dispersed coal burning and coal-fired industrial boilers. Coal would be mainly provided for highly coal-consuming industries as well as power or thermal sectors. Residential coal should be fully under control, and all coal of sulfur content more than 0.6% should be completely banned.

Secondly, as a complement to energy structure adjustment, end-of-pipe emission control measures should be fully and effectively implemented. Ultra-low-emission coal-fired power generation should be fully realized. High energy-consuming and high emission industries like steel enterprises and cement sector should be equipped with desulfurization and denitrification facilities as well as dust collectors. Desulfurization efficiency in steel enterprises should be no less than 85% and fine particles in cement sector should be collected at an efficiency of 99%. The average removal efficiency of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in major sectors like coking, surface coating, and packaging printing in major provinces should not be lower than 70%. Middle- and small-seized boilers, as well as old-fashioned boilers should be gradually eliminated; and the remaining large-sized boilers should be fully upgraded to have desulfurization, denitrification, and dust collector equipment installed. Meanwhile, The quality of gasoline and diesel oil should be fully optimized by2030, so that all vehicles in use should reach the strict "NationalⅥ", or higher, emission standard. And the proportion of public transport in metropolises should be increased.

Thirdly, the second phase of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (also known as "Ten Rules of Atmosphere") should be released; and scientifically reasonable plans for air quality should be prepared for convergence of policies for China's goal in middle-/long-term energy strategies with short-term air quality improvement.

The report also indicates that environmental law-forcing supervision should be strengthened in order to ensure implementation of all emission reduction measures. In addition, the environmental protection service sector should be further developed and promoted with enhancement in both human resources and capital investment from the private sector. Also, ozone pollution should also be of great concern when alleviating particulate matter pollution.

This report also indicates that CO₂ emission of China would reach its peak before 2030 if energy structure is deeply optimized, with about 17% CO₂ emission reduced by 2030 (compared to 2015). This would suggest that improvement in air quality and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be achieved simultaneously.

The report emphasizes that cleaning the air in China would mostly rely on cleaner industrial structure where the upgrade and development are significantly important. Implementation of environment protection policies would facilitate not only air pollution control but also environmental enterprises development.