Trump's foreign policies may endanger China-U.S. relations

Right after Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent head of China's Taiwan, phoned Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, in early December, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured the public by labeling the contact a "small trick played by Tsai."

The standpoint of the foreign minister reflects the Chinese government's consistent policy hopes of maintaining good relations with the United States, where the transition of power is taking place. In other words, China expects the U.S. to continue to uphold the fundamental principles.

"I believe the U.S. government will not scrap the One China Policy as this primary principle has always been considered the bedrock to building good bilateral relations which, as we expect, should develop with no interruptions nor sabotages," Wang said.

But, taking Trump's adherence to the One China Policy for granted after he assumes the presidency may put China's national interest at stake.

One day after Wang's remark, Trump posted comments on his twitter condemning China on issues of FOREX, trade taxes and the South China Sea – showing his belligerence even without touching on the issue of Taiwan. Therefore, Trump's words discount the efforts of Foreign Minister Wang who tried to understate the impact of the phone call.

The challenge for the mainstream political order, which is governed by a number of elites in the United States, is looming large with Trump set to become the U.S. president next month. It is speculated that he may undermine the political model that is essentially shaped by the rotating governance of two major Parties – Republican and Democratic – and manifested by the bipartisan contentions for power through general elections that have consecutively progressed since the end of World War II.

By disobeying mainstream rules, Trump may actually end both the revolution of new liberalism and the roadmap of idealism that are valued much by the American intelligentsia after WWII.

With his astute sense as a businessman, Trump may disapprove of the country's balance sheet following the roadmap of idealism, which has assisted the post-war reconstruction in Germany and Japan, spread Pan-America Peace, decolonized the Third World, set up the system of global capitalism, directed globalization after the Cold War and established global free trade mechanisms, although, at a huge expense and with many unexpected results.

He will definitely reverse the trend of globalization and derail the locomotive of the United States from the rail of idealism.

China has access to the global capitalist economy and free trade system dominated by the United States since the rise of new liberalism in the later part of globalization. By stereotyping their views and thoughts, the Chinese politicians and scholars are blindly confident of the mainstream U.S. political models, roadmaps and structures – ignoring the challenges that may lead to the derailment of bilateral ties.

When assuring their audience to be easy at Tsai's attempt to get in touch with Trump, the media outlets in China have made a blunder to believe that the president-elect will focus on America's economic growth only. On the contrary, he will in no way leave the international arena to fully focus on domestic restructuring. With the enormous debt and tax reductions that he promised, won't he need mammoth investments to finance the domestic market? Or does he have any other options other than to let the rest of the world to compensate the stratospheric costs of America's efforts to restructure its economy?

It is nothing new for the United States to encroach on the interests of other countries, such as Japan, Germany and the countries from the Third World. However, when the interests of the above mentioned countries diminish, the United States starts to prey onto China, which it believes, benefits a lot from its role as a "free rider."

Therefore, the confrontation between China and the United States is supposed to happen after Trump assumes office as the U.S. president. Otherwise, his promise to "make America great again" will be nothing but empty words.

Those who believe Trump will not jolt the foundation of China-U.S. bilateral ties will find themselves too naïve. The president-elect will play extraordinarily on Sino-U.S. bilateral ties to fulfill his purposes.

Moreover, in its ensuing foreign policies, the United States is much more likely to continue to direct Japan, South Korea and even Taiwan to constrain China.

In dealing with Trump, China should abandon its mirage of expecting the continuance of the new liberalism which prevailed in the past four decades.

Even though China has been paid with fat rewards by not challenging the world order ruled by the United States, in terms of its dominance and support for globalization and free trade, it's time to say goodbye to the train driven by Uncle Sam, who plans to jump from the locomotive. Therefore, China should either replace the U.S. as the train driver or get off for a new train.

Besides, China should make great efforts to work out solutions to counteract the modern "Operation Barbarossa," that is rigged by the upcoming U.S. administration. The phone call from Tsai may be a start point of the plan.

Last but not least, China should prepare well for the grim challenge of the new U.S. administration headed by Trump, predicting and evaluating the businessman-turned-politician's styles, strategies and measures so that China may no longer be passive in defense, but take the upper hand during the confrontation.

Wen Yang is a researcher at the Center for China Studies of Fudan University.

The article was translated by Wu Jin. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.