Trump's Tsai-Ops

The implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's call to the Taiwanese leader are beyond measure. My first thought was of the utter stupidity of the call and the geopolitical ramifications it might result. However, a more nuanced analysis brings a lot of strands into play.

The first idea was that this was a deliberate shift in American foreign policy. U.S. Bipartisan foreign policy since 1971 has been of recognizing the principle of One China, and considering China's mainland as the ultimate power broker in the region. It served U.S. interests, as well as Chinese and Taiwanese interests.

Regardless of what one might think, China wouldn't accept a separate Taiwan, just as U.S. wouldn't accept Texas seceding. Therefore, to think that this was deliberate would imply that there was bipartisan backing for the phone call, and it was a deliberate and extremely provocative move changing more than 40 years of foreign policy consensus and leading into uncharted territory.

However, subsequent reactions from the Senate Foreign Policy Committee, and Democrat and Republican lawmakers, stress it wasn't a deliberate move.

The second thing that then comes to mind is whether it was what we call "positioning" in international relations. This is a version of the Madman Theory formulated by Richard Nixon, where one establishes a position with a few aggressive moves so that that anything coming later looks like a compromise for a deal.

So, in that way, Donald Trump is positioning himself, with a clever psy-op approach from a strong position, so that every discussion with the Chinese side will show that Trump is a clever deal maker and is climbing down. However, that also looks strained, as it implies a logical, coherent foreign policy understanding by Trump.

There is no evidence this exists. Trump's statements during the election campaign didn't touch on the China-Taiwan issue; in fact, in the list or set of priorities for foreign policy, Taiwan comes very low down. Naturally, it is likely this was a random impromptu call rather than a carefully crafted foreign policy maneuver.

This brings us to the third option. Was Trump tricked? And if so, by whom? Donald Trump is not very knowledgeable about foreign policy, by any measurable index. Now, there might be someone in his cabinet who doesn't like the current China policy and took advantage of it, and made Trump call Tsai in a move that was bound to jeopardize Chinese-American relations even before the President took office.

It could also be that Taiwan took advantage of this, and called Trump to score a diplomatic win by taking advantage of Trump's ignorance with regards to American policies.

Either way, it would point out to the fact that this was impromptu and arbitrary and doesn't fit in any known pattern. Trump in the last two days, called Pakistan and worried India, talked to the Taiwanese leader and enraged China, and called Philippines President Duterte and invited him to White House, contrary to American current policy with regards to Duterte's drug war and human rights. All of this was done from private phones. In a series of blunders this will be similar to Boris Yeltsin running naked in Washington DC.

It seems like the Chinese foreign policy establishment take a similar view. A China Daily editorial stated that this exposes "nothing but his and his transition team's inexperience in dealing with foreign affairs." Foreign Minister Wang Yi also said that this whole thing was a petty move by Taiwan, rather than blaming Trump himself. That's a smart move, because it is cautious.

As far as the available evidence is concerned, Trump's world view is very transactional. It is not universalist and not based on human rights. Therefore, it is unlikely Trump cares much about Taiwan or Tibet for example.

Going by his idea of how the world should be governed, Trump could come to a G2 deal with China, as long as it benefits U.S. in some ways and absolves U.S. of responsibilities and doesn't push America into a corner. That is an opportunity for other great powers.

If Taiwan can trick Trump, I find it hard to imagine others won't be able to manipulate him.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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