Challenge Lies Ahead for Next Leader

With World Bank President Robert Zoellick ending his five-year term in June, speculation has been running high about who will replace him at the multilateral agency.

Beyond the list of possible American candidates, including former White House adviser Lawrence Summers and US Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice, some have said that the post should go to a person from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries.

Since the bank was set up after World War II to fight global poverty, it's always been headed by a US citizen, while the International Monetary Fund has always been run by a European.

"This is a 'gentlemen's agreement' that reflects the disproportionate influence these countries have in contributing to each institution," said Martin S. Edwards, associate professor at the Whitehead School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University in the US.

But the agreement "no longer fits the reality of the world", he added. Last month, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Mexico City, representatives from the BRICS nations said the World Bank job should be open to all countries.

"Candidates should be chosen based on merit and not on nationality," said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

South Africa's Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan agreed that it was time the world broke the tradition of the "US and Europe sharing the two seats, and among all of us we must try harder this time to find some consensus".

However, the BRICS countries need to unite behind a single candidate, said Edwards. "One of the issues the BRICS nations have is that these countries never spoke as one", he noted.

Edwards said even though no Chinese names had surfaced publicly so far, "it doesn't mean they are not being talked about". He said China probably had someone in mind that it would like to recommend.

Edwards said having experts from developing economies would give them a bit more legitimacy.

"China has addressed many of these (development) issues, and if a Chinese were to lead the organization, the nature of the dialogue between the bank and a borrowing country becomes more of a partnership and a little more collaborative," he said.

With China's rapid economic growth in recent years, more Chinese experts are taking senior positions in international financial institutions.

Just last week, a Chinese national - Lin Jianhai - was named as the secretary of the IMF. In 2008, Chinese economist Justin Yifu Lin became the chief economist and senior vice-president of the World Bank. In 2011, Zhu Min, former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, was named as deputy managing director of the IMF.

"It was probably no accident that Zhu's former position (special adviser to the bank's managing director) got upgraded to deputy managing director when (Christine) Lagarde became managing director", a move that was backed by the Chinese government, said Edwards.

However, Justin Lin, speaking at an event organized by the UN in New York on March 9, confirmed to China Daily that he was not involved in the selection process for the job, and he said that he will end his World Bank tenure in June and return to Peking University to teach.

Backing someone to head the bank who is not an American is not "politically feasible" for Barack Obama, especially during an election year, said Edwards. "But if the president of the bank is going to remain an American, the number of high-level positions for people from BRICS countries is going to increase, just as in the cases of Zhu Min, Justin Lin and Lin Jianhai. That will help strengthen the organization's global legitimacy," Edwards said.

Candidates must submit their names by March 23. Then, the bank's executive directors will form a short list of candidates for interviews and, by consensus, put forward a final candidate around early April.

No matter who gets the job, the organization faces many difficulties. Edwards said these include the need to build stronger connections with key constituencies such as non-governmental organizations, rising economic powers and the US Congress, make the bank more transparent and refine its business model.

Even though there probably won't be a nationality change this time, the next leader might be a woman, based on media speculation about such names as Rice and PepsiCo Inc CEO Indra Nooyi.

"If the Obama administration has the opportunity to bring in the first female World Bank president, they are going to do it," said Edwards.